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000
ABNT20 KNHC 221732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nine, located over the eastern Bay of Campeche.

A large non-tropical low, located over the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south of the western Azores, continues to
produce disorganized showers. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become less conducive for development by Thursday while the low
meanders. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN SO FAR...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 22
 the center of NINE was located near 19.2, -91.7
 with movement ESE at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 222031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN SO FAR...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 91.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE DEPRESSION
MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS TO
A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH AREA BY THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 222031
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA
 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
TONIGHT.
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  91.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  91.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  91.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.0N  91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.6N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N  87.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  91.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 222031
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The depression still has a well defined circulation, but the
associated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day.
Based on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is
kept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the
shear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will
attain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan
peninsula in about 12 hours or less. The NHC forecast keeps the
cyclone as a tropical depression through 5 days as it crosses
Yucatan and moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There
is also a chance that the system dissipates over land in about 24
hours or so.  The GFS changed its tune significantly between the
06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the
Caribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one.
On the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone
for the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly
uncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone
in the next run.

The depression has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or
115 degrees at 4 knots.  The cyclone is located at the base of a
mid-level trough, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This
pattern will steer the depression on a general eastward track over
Yucatan, and as the trough lifts out the depression could meander
in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to the tropical depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 19.2N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 19.0N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/1800Z 18.6N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0600Z 18.0N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1800Z 18.0N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1800Z 18.0N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 18.0N  85.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 18.0N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila


Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014


000
FONT14 KNHC 222031
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014               
2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
BELIZE         34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   2(14)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Tropical Depression NINE Graphics


Tropical Depression NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 20:33:10 GMT

Tropical Depression NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 21:04:45 GMT
LightningRing