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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 291110
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Matthew, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew are issued under
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER...
 As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Sep 29
 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.1, -65.5
 with movement W at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 4A

Issued at 800 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 291204 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
800 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

CORRECTED SPEED OF MOTION

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 65.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 65.5 West.  Matthew is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
is forecast to pass to the north of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao
through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane later
today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
primarily to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from
reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba beginning late today.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.  These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2016  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 290856
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  64.7W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
34 KT.......160NE 100SE   0SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE  60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  64.7W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  64.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.1N  66.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE  80SE   0SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.1N  69.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.9N  70.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.8N  72.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.5N  74.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N  75.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N  64.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 290905
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

Matthew is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located near the
western edge of the main convective mass.  An earlier Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission reported 850 mb flight-level winds
of 65-70 kt and estimated surface winds of 50-55 kt from the SFMR
instrument.  Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55
kt.  The aircraft reported a central pressure of 1002 mb on its
last pass through the center.

The initial motion is 275/14.  Matthew is currently on the south
side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge.  This feature should
steer the storm westward or even south of west during the next 48
hours.  After that time, Matthew is expected to approach the
western end of the ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico.  While this combination is expected to
cause the cyclone to turn generally northward, there is significant
disagreement between the dynamical models on where the turn will
occur and how fast Matthew will move northward.  The forecast track
is in best agreement with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean in bringing
the center to eastern Cuba by 120 hours, although it is slower than
those models. The Canadian model is a little west of the forecast
track. The ECMWF and UKMET are to the east of the forecast track and
much slower, bringing the center to the island of Hispaniola.
Overall, the new forecast track is nudged a little south of the
previous track for the first 72 hours, then is similar to the
previous track.  Users are reminded that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles,
respectively.

The current shear is likely to gradually diminish during the next
72 hours, and this should allow continued gradual development.
After that time, there is also disagreement in the models regarding
the forecast shear, with the GFS showing a more favorable pattern
than the ECMWF.  If the GFS upper-level winds are correct, Matthew
could strengthen more than currently forecast as show by the HWRF.
However, given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is the
same as the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the
intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 14.0N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 14.1N  66.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 14.1N  69.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 13.9N  70.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 13.8N  72.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 14.5N  74.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 17.5N  75.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 20.5N  75.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2016


000
FONT14 KNHC 290857
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016               
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   4( 4)  17(21)  19(40)  11(51)   3(54)   X(54)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   5(21)   2(23)   X(23)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
CURACAO        34  1   9(10)   8(18)   2(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)
CURACAO        50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)  18(41)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  10(29)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  24(31)  11(42)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   6(18)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)  23(36)   9(45)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   5(11)  14(25)   7(32)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   5( 5)   5(10)   4(14)   6(20)   9(29)   3(32)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   4(15)   2(17)
 
PONCE PR       34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  5   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  4   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
DOMINICA       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Graphics


Tropical Storm MATTHEW 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 12:06:07 GMT

Tropical Storm MATTHEW 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 09:05:38 GMT
LightningRing