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000
ABNT20 KNHC 302340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located which is nearing the Cape Verde Islands.

The remnants of Erika, a trough of low pressure over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, continue to produce areas of heavy rains over
portions of the Florida peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the
western half of Cuba. Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for development, and tropical cyclone formation is not
expected. Additional information on this system can be found in
local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service and
the meteorological service of Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
 As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 30
 the center of FRED was located near 14.9, -21.8
 with movement NW at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 4A

Issued at 800 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302336
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
800 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 21.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Verde Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 21.8 West.  Fred is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A northwestward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center will move near or over
some of the Cape Verde Islands early Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Strengthening is expected, and Fred is forecast
to become a hurricane overnight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of
the Cape Verde Islands in a few hours, with hurricane conditions by
early Monday morning.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 302034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  21.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  21.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  20.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.6N  22.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.9N  24.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.2N  26.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.2N  28.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.6N  31.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 21.8N  35.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.8N  39.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  21.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 302035
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

Fred has continued to strengthen this afternoon.  A new burst of
deep convection has developed over the center, with the CDO becoming
more symmetric.  Late afternoon visible satellite pictures also
reveal increased banding in all quadrants.  AMSR-2 and GCOM
microwave data from late this morning indicated that Fred continues
to exhibit a well-defined inner core with a closed low-level ring in
the 37 GHz imagery.  The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt,
which is in agreement with a subjective data T-number of 3.5 from
TAFB and T3.4 from UW/CIMSS ADT.

Fred is forecast to remain in a favorable environment characterized
by very low vertical wind shear, warm water, and sufficient
mid-level moisture during the next day or so.  Therefore, additional
strengthening is expected and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to
become a hurricane tonight or early Monday.  This is supported by
the statistical guidance and the HWRF model which bring Fred to
hurricane status.  In about 36 hours, the tropical cyclone
will be moving into a more hostile environment of increasing
southwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more
stable air mass.  This should result in weakening throughout the
remainder of the forecast period, and the new NHC forecast weakens
Fred to a tropical depression by 120 h.

Fred has been moving faster than predicted today, and the initial
motion estimate is 310/14 kt.  The forecast track philosophy remains
unchanged from before.  The cyclone should move northwestward toward
a break in the subtropical ridge during the next day or so.  In a
couple of days, Fred should turn west-northwestward as the ridge
rebuilds to the north of the cyclone over the eastern and
central Atlantic.  The updated NHC track forecast is a little north
of the previous advisory after 48 hours to be in better agreement
with the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF) consensus model.

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 14.4N  21.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 15.6N  22.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 16.9N  24.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 18.2N  26.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 19.2N  28.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 20.6N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 21.8N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 22.8N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015


000
FONT11 KNHC 302034
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm FRED Graphics


Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 23:39:37 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 21:06:46 GMT
LightningRing