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000
ABNT20 KNHC 022303
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this system through the weekend while it
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Dolly are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Dolly
are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)

...CENTER OF DOLLY MOVING ASHORE JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 2
 the center of DOLLY was located near 21.9, -97.7
 with movement W at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 030235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...CENTER OF DOLLY MOVING ASHORE JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 97.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DOLLY
MOVES INLAND.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA IS
1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2014  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 030235
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  97.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  97.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  97.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.0N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N  97.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 030236
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Radar and surface data from Mexico show that the center of Dolly is
moving ashore just south of Tampico.  The initial intensity remains
40 kt, which is in agreement with the earlier aircraft observations.
The minimum pressure is estimated to be 1002 mb based on dropsonde
data from both the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
the NASA Global Hawk.  Dolly should begin to weaken overnight while
the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico within
a day or so.

The initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt.  Dolly is forecast to
continue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge
until dissipation occurs.  The new NHC track is similar to the
previous advisory and is close to the GFS model.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 21.9N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 22.0N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/0000Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2014


000
FONT15 KNHC 030235
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014               
0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34 47   3(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
TUXPAN MX      34 25   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics


Tropical Storm DOLLY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 02:37:04 GMT

Tropical Storm DOLLY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 03:04:48 GMT
LightningRing