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000
ABNT20 KNHC 192307
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard, located a few hundred miles west of
the western Azores. Additional information on Edouard can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the
Cape Verde Islands. While some development of this system is
possible during the next day or two, upper-level winds are expected
to become less conducive after that time. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 19
 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.5, -37.5
 with movement E at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 34

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN


Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 34

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 192030
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 300SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.4N  36.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N  33.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.0N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.3N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  37.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN



Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 34

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192031
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard consists of a large but
tight swirl of low-level clouds.  Since the cyclone has been absent
any deep convection for more than 12 hours, Edouard is being
declared a post-tropical cyclone at this time.  A blend of the 1800
UTC TAFB Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers suggests an initial intensity
of 35 kt, which is in basic agreement with a morning ASCAT pass.
Post-tropical cyclone Edouard should continue moving over cooler
waters and in an environment of strong northwesterly wind shear.
Thus, additional weakening is expected during the next day or so
prior to Edouard becoming extratropical in about 36 hours when it
merges with a front.

Although the center of the cyclone jogged southeastward earlier this
morning, it has since resumed an eastward motion at a faster forward
speed or 090/06.  Now a shallow feature, Edouard should accelerate
eastward on the north side of a low-level ridge of high pressure
during the next 24 hours.  The track should then bend southeastward
and southward around the flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone
over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an
update of the previous one, only shifted slightly to the left to be
in line with the TVCA multi-model consensus.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 39.5N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  20/0600Z 39.4N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  20/1800Z 39.0N  33.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 38.0N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1800Z 36.3N  30.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman


Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014  

000
FONT11 KNHC 192031
PWSAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 20:33:13 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 21:05:45 GMT
LightningRing