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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221711
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)

...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Jul 22
 the center of TWO was located near 12.6, -48.0
 with movement W at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 221433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 48.0W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 221431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  48.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  48.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  47.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.9N  50.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.3N  53.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N  56.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.8N  60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N  48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 221436
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

The depression continues to produce deep convection in a band to the
west and southwest of the center and the initial intensity remains
30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is
no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, as the cyclone will
be moving through an environment of dry air and increasing shear
that will not favor strengthening. The global models and the HWRF
show the vortex weakening and opening up into a trough near the
Lesser Antilles by 48 hours or shortly thereafter. The NHC forecast
includes a 48-h point as a remnant low, but it would not be
surprising if the system had already dissipated by that time.

The initial motion estimate is 280/15, as the depression continues
to be steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. A quick westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through
dissipation. The dynamical track model guidance remains in good
agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC track is largely an
update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 12.6N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 12.9N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 13.3N  53.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 13.9N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 14.8N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014


000
FONT12 KNHC 221433
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  

Tropical Depression TWO Graphics


Tropical Depression TWO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 15:03:05 GMT

Tropical Depression TWO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 15:04:44 GMT
LightningRing